Question
You have a potential project for which you want to establish the value of any possible real options. The project will have an initial cost
You have a potential project for which you want to establish the value of any possible real options. The project will have an initial cost of $87 million, which must be paid at the time of investment. You realize that the project has three possible cash flows starting in year 1 and continuing forever. First, there is a 15% chance of earning $1.13 million per year starting in year 1. Second, there is a 33% chance of earning $7.27 million per year starting in year 1. Third, there is a chance the the project will earn $2.92 million per year. These are the only three possibilities. In 2 year(s), you will be able to expand the project if you would like to. The cost of this will be $70 million, and the cash flows will increase beginning one year after you expand and will remain at the new level forever, if you choose to expand. The expansion will increase the project's cash flows by 100%. The risk-free rate and appropriate discount rate for the project is 5%. What is the value today of this option to expand?
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