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You have become concerned about the amount of copier paper used in your office after repeatedly running out of supplies. Your assistant keeps track
You have become concerned about the amount of copier paper used in your office after repeatedly running out of supplies. Your assistant keeps track of the number of reams (packages of 500 sheets) for 24 weeks: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Reams of paper Week 232 263 271 248 235 261 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 207 243 20 Reams of paper 253 270 230 253 238 272 222 22 243 289 238 237 21 293 11 243 12 260 23 262 234 24 a-1. Calculate a two-week moving average forecast, a four-week moving average forecast, and a six-week moving average forecast based on the actual demand for reams of paper. Then calculate Mean Forecast Error (MFE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for each of these three forecast methods, using the errors from weeks 7 through 24 for each method. Why are we only using errors from weeks 7 through 24? After all, the two-week moving average forecast will have errors in weeks 3 through 24, and the four-week moving average forecast will have errors in weeks 5 through 24. The reason is that the six-week moving average will only have errors in weeks 7 through 24. By limiting our MFE and MAD calculations to the same number of time periods for all three forecasts, we can better compare their accuracy to one another. (Negative answers for MFE should be indicated by a minus sign. Round all intermediate calculations and final answers to 1 decimal place.) Moving Average Forecast 2-Week 4-Week 6-Week MFE MAD
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