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You have determined that the current quality of financial reporting is summarized in the following information system: The states of nature refer to future firm
You have determined that the current quality of financial reporting is summarized in the following information system: The states of nature refer to future firm performance. GN and BN summarizes the information content of current financial statements. You are a shareholder of ABC, which has just released its quarterly financial report. You analyze this report, and decide that it shows GN. Your decision problem is to sell your shares now (a_1) or hold them for another quarter (a_2). Your prior probability of the high state is .7. the current market value of ABC shares is $81. If ABC is in the high state, your payoff will be $100 if you sell at the end of the next quarter. If ABC is in the low state, your payoff will be $36. You are risk-adverse, with utility equal to the squareroot of your payoff. a. What information is included in your prior probabilities? Are they subjective or objective? Why? b. Are the information system probabilities subjective or objective? What determines these probabilities? c. Should you sell or hold your ABC shares? Show your work
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