Question
You have finally finished your movie script. A producer offers to buy your script for $200,000. Alternatively, you could borrow $100,000 and film a pilot
You have finally finished your movie script. A producer offers to buy your script for $200,000. Alternatively, you could borrow $100,000 and film a pilot yourself. Based on your agents research, you find there is a 40% chance your pilot will fail, and no one will buy it. There is a 55% chance a network will pay you $350,000 to pick up your show. And there is a 5% chance it will be a huge success and a network will pay you $2,000,000 for your show. As an expected value maximizer, after analyzing this decision you decide to sell your script to the producer and earn $200,000 as this is the highest expected value. Genie Analytics tells you they can perfectly predict how your script will do. How much would you be willing to pay Genie for their perfect information? That is, what is EVPI?
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