You have just done a regression of monthly stock returns of ABC Inc., on monthly market returns over the past five years and have come up with the following regression: =0.05+1.5 The variance of the stock is 50%, and the variance of the market is 20%. The current risk-free rate is 5% (it was 10% one year ago) and the market risk premium is 11.76%. The stock is currently selling for $50, down $4 over the past year; it has paid a dividend of $2 during the past year and expects to pay a dividend of $2.50 over the next year.

What would you have expected for ABC Inc.'s return over the past year?