Question
You have produced a prototype machine, and you have given the permission to try to produce this product commercially. It will take five years to
You have produced a prototype machine, and you have given the permission to try to produce this product commercially. It will take five years to find out whether the prototype is commercially viable, and you estimate that the probability of success is 25%. Development will cost $9.6 million per year, paid at the beginning of each year. If development is successful and you decide to produce the machine, the factory will be built immediately. It will cost $1019 million to put in place and will generate profits of $88 million at the end of every year in perpetuity. Assume that the current five-year risk-free interest rate is 9.7% per year, and the yield on a perpetual risk-free bond will be 13.2%, 8.2%, 7.8%, or 4.5% in five years. Assume that the risk-neutral probability of each possible rate is the same. What is the value today of this project? Show all work to receive marks. No marks will be given for answers without justification. (Your answer should be in millions. Round to the nearest hundredth. e.g., 55.16666 must be expressed as 55.17).
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