Question
You manage R&D for 3M. You decide 60,000 products isn't enough so you begin work on some new products. Your team has an idea for
You manage R&D for 3M. You decide 60,000 products isn't enough so you begin work on some new products. Your team has an idea for silent Velcro. Based on prior projects, your team has a 75% chance of success. To start the R&D for silent Velcro, you need to spend $10 million today. If your team is successful in developing silent Velcro, 3M would need to spend $20 million exactly 3 years from today upgrading their equipment and training. You believe 3M would then experience $10 million of positive cash flow per year for 5 years starting 4 years from today. If your team is unsuccessful, you believe you can use some of the findings to streamline your current Velcro production. If you are unsuccessful, it would cost $10 million exactly 3 years from today to upgrade your equipment and you project 3M would then experience $1.5 million per year of positive cash flows for 6 years starting 4 years from today. If 3M's discount rate is 6%, what is the expected NPV and should you start the R&D?
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