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You plan to run an experiment on the use of helmets. People in the control group (C) get no incentives. People in the treatment
You plan to run an experiment on the use of helmets. People in the control group (C) get no incentives. People in the treatment group (T) receive $5 if they wear a helmet. Assume that the baseline rate is pc = .6 (i.e., 60% of people in Control wears a helmet). Your sample size of the treatment group is 10. Use a significance level of 5% and a one- sided test. a. How many of the 10 people in the treatment group do you expect to wear a helmet if there is no treatment effect? b. Suppose you observe 7 people wearing a helmet in your treatment group. What is the probability of observing at least 7 people wearing a helmet in the treatment group if there is no treatment effect? c. Repeat the above question for the following outcomes: 8, 9, and 10. Probability outcome is at least 8: Probability outcome is at least 9: Probability outcome is at least 10: d. For each of the following outcomes, determine if the outcome is significant at the 5% level: 7, 8, 9, and 10. Outcome 7: Outcome 8: Outcome 9: Outcome 10: e. Assume you expect that the intervention is effective, and that it increases the percentage of people wearing a helmet to 80%. For each of the following outcomes, calculate the probability of observing that exact outcome when the percentage of people wearing a helmet is 80%: 7, 8, 9, 10. Probability of getting exactly 7: Probability of getting exactly 8: Probability of getting exactly 9: Probability of getting exactly 10: f. Calculate the statistical power when the percentage of people wearing a helmet is 80%. g. Repeat the above steps for a sample size of 20 in the treatment group (focus on outcomes 15 and higher instead of 7 and higher). What happens to the statistical power?
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