You use today's spot rate of the Brazilian real to forecast the spot rate of the real for one month ahead. Today's spot rate is $0.4558*. Use the value-at-risk method to determine the maximum percentage loss of the Brazilian real over the next month based on a 95 percent confidence level (about 1.65 standard deviations away from the expected percentage change in Brazilian real). Use the spot exchange rates at the end of each of the last 6 months as shown below to conduct your analysis. Calculate the monthly return for each month. Forecast the exchange rate for Brazilian real for next month under these conditions. Return End of Month Value of Brazilian real %AS-S S -1 $0.4251 (no return for this month as this is the base period) 0.4203 0.4196 0.4523 0.4417 0.4558*