Your employer, an Australian-based investment bank, has issued a Structured Financial Product (SFP) to high net worth investors. You have been requested to determine the risk exposure to the bank and to hedge the market financial risks associated with the payoff at maturity on the SFP.

You have the following information on this SFP, as well as other information on key financial variables:

• The face value of the SFP is USD25,000
• The payoff is due in one year
• Payoff at maturity is max{USD25,000, [(SP500_T/SP500₀)x USD25,000]}
• SP500_Trepresents the value of the S&P 500 Index at maturity of the investment product and SP500₀the value of the S&P 500 Index at inception of the SFP (i.e., the end of June 2020)
• USD/AUD represents the US dollar/Australian dollar exchange rate (price of AUD 1 in USD)
• The discount rate for this SFP is the yield on the comparable U.S. government bond plus 200 basis points

Refer to Dataset Below for US Government Liabilities Spot Rates:

https://gofile.io/d/3rVAIS

Your macroeconomic team has estimated that the escalation or ending of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war in 6 months would significantly impact this SFP. The escalation would cause the S&P500 index to decline by 10% and the AUD to appreciate against the USD by 5%. The ending would have the opposite effect on the equity and currency markets. Briefly outline the value of the SFP given these two scenarios. Propose another scenario that would significantly impact the SFP.