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You've got some musical talent. You're trying to decide whether to represent yourself, sign with a friend who's a wannabe agent, or fly to NYC
You've got some musical talent. You're trying to decide whether to represent yourself, sign with a friend who's a wannabe agent, or fly to NYC and try to get signed. If you represent yourself, you'll make it big (earning $2M) with 10% probability, make it small (earning $20K) with 20% probability, and failing completely (earning you $0) with 70% probability. If you go with your friend, you have a 15% chance of making it big ($1M because he takes half), 55% chance of making it small ($10K), and 30% of failing (-$10K). If you fly to NYC, there's a 40% chance you'll get signed by a label, and 60% chance you won't. If you do get signed by a label, you have 20% chance at making it big ($1M), 80% chance of making it small ($10K), and 0% chance of failing completely. If they reject you, you can quit (and lose the $1K you spent to get up there) or you can represent yourself (but this time with a little more knowledge). In this case, you make it big 15% ($2M), small 25% ($20K), complete fail 60% (-$6K). What is the expected value of the best strategy? Answer rounded to
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