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Zoonotic disease outbreaks are infectious disease outbreaks in humans that are caused by pathogens from wild or domesticated animals. Suppose two pathogen genotypes occur

 

Zoonotic disease outbreaks are infectious disease outbreaks in humans that are caused by pathogens from wild or domesticated animals. Suppose two pathogen genotypes occur in chickens, and one of them is accidentally transmitted to a farmer, each being selected with probability 0.05 for type 1 or 0.95 for type 2. If type 1 is transmitted, then an outbreak will occur with probability 0.78, whereas if type 2 is transmitted, then an outbreak will occur with probability 0.5. What is the overall probability of an outbreak? Round your answer to five decimal places. Answer:

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