A community college is planning to use the exponential smoothing method to forecast freshman applications for the fall semester of each year. Past 5-year data on the actual number of applications received during 2011–2015 are given in Table 2.12.

a. Beginning with an initial forecast of 5000 for 2011 and α = 0.2, determine the forecasts for the years 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015.

b. Calculate MAD and Bias for the 5-year period 2011–2015.

c. Calculate the tracking signals for the 5 years.

d. Determine the forecasts for the years 2016, 2017, and 2018.

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TABLE 2.12 Data on Freshman Application (Exercise 2.10) Year Number of Applications 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4650 5200 6000 5700 6200