In a white noise series (a_{t}) of variance (sigma^{2}), an outlier of size (omega) is identified by
Question:
In a white noise series \(a_{t}\) of variance \(\sigma^{2}\), an outlier of size \(\omega\) is identified by the ratio \(\omega / \sigma\). In a vector white noise \(\boldsymbol{a}_{t}\) of \(k\) time series with the same variance \(\sigma^{2}\) and a multivariate outlier \(\boldsymbol{\omega}\), the univariate time series obtained by projecting \(\boldsymbol{a}_{t}\) in the direction \(\boldsymbol{\omega}, y_{t}=\boldsymbol{\omega}^{\prime} \boldsymbol{a}_{t}\) has an outlier of size \(\boldsymbol{\omega}^{\prime} \boldsymbol{\omega}\) and variance \(\boldsymbol{\omega}^{\prime} \boldsymbol{\omega} \sigma^{2}\), and the ratio to identify the outlier is \(\sqrt{\omega^{\prime} \omega} / \sigma=\sqrt{k} \bar{\omega} / \sigma\), where \(\bar{\omega}=\sqrt{\omega^{\prime} \omega / k}\). Explain why these results prove that the multivariate outlier detection by projections can be more powerful than univariate detection if the direction of the outlier is well identified.
Step by Step Answer:
Statistical Learning For Big Dependent Data
ISBN: 9781119417385
1st Edition
Authors: Daniel Peña, Ruey S. Tsay