In an upstate congressional race, the incumbent Republican (R) is running against a field of three Democrats
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In an upstate congressional race, the incumbent Republican (R) is running against a field of three Democrats (D1, D2, and D3) seeking the nomination. Political pundits estimate that the probabilities of D1, D2, or D3 winning the primary are 0.35, 0.40, and 0.25, respectively. Furthermore, results from a variety of polls are suggesting that R would have a 40% chance of defeating D1 in the general election, a 35% chance of defeating D2, and a 60% chance of defeating D3. Assuming all these estimates to be accurate, what are the chances that the Republican will retain his seat?
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