5.4 Airline accident deaths Airplane safety has been improving over the years. From 2000 to 2010, the average number of global airline deaths per year was over 1000, even when excluding the nearly 3000 deaths in the United States on September 11, 2001. The number of global airline deaths declined in 2011, again in 2012, and then hit a low of only 265 in 2013. In 2013, there were a total of 825 million passengers globally. Sources: en.wikipedia.org and www.transtats.bts.gov1.

a. Can you consider the 2013 data as a long run or short run of trials? Explain.

b. Estimate the probability of dying on a flight in 2013.

(Note, the probability of dying from a 1000-mile automobile trip is about 1 in 42,000 by contrast.)

c. Raul is considering flying on an airplane. He noticed that over the past two months, there have been no fatal airplane crashes around the world. This raises his concern about flying because the airlines are “due for an accident.” Comment on his reasoning.