Johnson & Johnson’s quarterly sales, in millions of dollars, from first quarter 1990 to first quarter 1991 are

Use this set of data and the data in Table 18.10 to run an autoregression model with 1, 2, and 3 lags from first quarter 1980 to fourth quarter 1990. Use MINITAB. Then use actual sales data for first quarter 1991 to calculate the prediction error as defined in Eq. 17.13.

Table 18.10

Eq. 17.13

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First quarter 1990 Second quarter 1990 Third quarter 1990 Fourth quarter 1990 First quarter 1991 2,809 2,825 2,775 2,794 3,149