Use the following information to answer question. What determines the voting behavior in a presidential election? An economist believes that people “vote their pockets.” He argues that economic condition is the greatest concern of voters. Therefore, the percentage of votes the incumbent gets depends on macroeconomic variables such as the inflation rate (IR), the unemployment rate (UR), and the growth rate of disposable income (DI). The following table contains these data:

In the regression, we are interested in what percentage of votes the incumbent receives. We decide to use the following model:

When Jimmy Carter was a candidate for the presidency, he coined a new term, the Misery Index, where Misery Index = UR + IR. Run a regression with only DI and the Misery Index. Conduct a test at the 5 % level to see whether the coefficient on the misery index is significant in explaining y.

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V 45 48 49.5 48.8 50.4 51.3 52.4 47.6 54.1 50.0 DI 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.7 1.9 3.0 2.3 UR 8.3 7.4 7.1 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.7 7.0 5.1 6.1 IR 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.0 3.4 5.1 3.4