Two experienced managers are resisting the introduction of a computerized exponential smoothing system, claiming that their judgmental forecasts are much better than any computer could do.

Their past record of predictions is as follows:

These data are available in the Excel worksheet C9 Excel P48 in MindTap. Compare the manager’s judgmental forecasts to those obtained using time series models. Are the manager’s judgmental forecasts performing satisfactorily?

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Week Actual Demand Manager's Forecast 1 2 3 14 456 7 8 9 10 4,000 4,200 4,200 3,000 3,800 5,000 5,600 4,400 5,000 4,800 4,500 5,000 4,000 3,800 3,600 4,000 5,000 4,800 4,000 5,000