Demand for a given product has been tracked for 5 years, and the results are shown below:

a. Use the first 4 years of demand to establish a simple (single) exponential smoothing model (with α = 0.10). At the end of month 48, what is your forecast for month 49?

Month 60?

b. Employ exponential smoothing with trend (with αHW = 0.15 and βHW = 0.05) to update aˆ and ˆ

b and show the forecasts for weeks 49, 50, ... , 60 made at the start of each of these periods.

c. Plot the demand data and the forecasts roughly to scale. Does there appear to be a point of abrupt change in the demand pattern? Discuss your results briefly Month Demand Month Demand Month Demand 1 239 21 261 41 165 2 186 22 223 42 119 3 164 23 368 43 176 4 179 24 231 44 177 5 229 25 219 45 200 6 219 26 142 46 173 7 259 27 179 47 260 8 208 28 188 48 192 9 201 29 237 49 136 10 186 30 126 50 184 11 166 31 237 51 239 12 196 32 234 52 219 13 191 33 300 53 174 14 229 34 174 54 208 15 169 35 187 55 241 16 254 36 154 56 220 17 155 37 211 57 194 18 158 38 129 58 197 19 210 39 207 59 218 20 143 40 175 60 252