The number of violent crimes in each of the last 6 weeks in the Hill Road Precinct has been:

Week j 1 2 3 4 5 6 Incidents xj 83 106 95 91 110 108

a. Use a 2-week moving average to forecast the incidents in each of weeks 7 and 10. Also compute the MSE based on the incidents and forecasts for periods 1–6. To initialize, assume x−1 = x0 = 100.

b. Detective Bick Melker suggests the use of simple (single) exponential smoothing with

α = 0.1. Use such a procedure to develop forecasts of incidents in weeks 7 and 10 for Hill Road. Initialize with aˆ0 = 100. Also compute the MSE and MAD.

c. Without redoing all the computations, what would be the forecast of incidents in week 7 using exponential smoothing if aˆ0 were 90 instead of 100?