29. Suppose that a nonmathematical but philosophically minded friend of yours claims that Laplace's rule of succession must be incorrect because it can lead to ridiculous conclusions. "For instance," says he, "if a boy is 10 years old, the rule states that having lived 10 years, the boy has probability $$1/12$$ of living another year. On the other hand, if the boy has an 80-year-old grandfather, then by Laplace's rule the grandfather has probability $$1/81$$ of surviving another year. However, this is ridiculous. Clearly, the boy is more likely to survive an additional year than is the grandfather." How would you answer your friend?