The Americo Oil Company is considering making a bid for a shale oil development contract to be awarded by the federal government. The company has decided to bid $112 million. The company estimates that it has a 60% chance of winning the contract with this bid. If the firm wins the contract, it can choose one of three methods for getting the oil from the shale. It can develop a new method for oil extraction, use an existing (inefficient) process, or subcontract the processing to a number of smaller companies once the shale has been excavated. The results from these alternatives are as follows:

The cost of preparing the contract proposal is $2 million. If the company does not make a bid, it will invest in an alternative venture with a guaranteed profit of $30 million. Construct a sequential decision tree for this decision situation and determine whether the company should make abid.

Develop new process Outcomes Great success Moderate success Failure Probability Profit ($1,000,000s) .30 .60 10 $ 600 300 -100 Use present process: Outcomes Great success Moderate success Failure Probability Profit ($1,000,000s) .50 .30 .20 $ 300 200 -40 Subcontract: Outcome Moderate success Probability Profit ($1,000,000s) 1.00 250