The Fletcher-Terry Company of Farmington, Connecticut, is a worldwide leader in the development of glass-cutting tools and
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1. Fletcher-Terry managers have been involved in many decisions over the years. Of particular importance were the decisions made in the 1980s when the company was struggling to survive. Several states of nature took place in the late 1970s and 1980s over which managers had little or no control. Suppose the Fletcher-Terry management team wants to reflect on their decisions and the events that surrounded them, and they ask you to make a brief report summarizing the situation. Delineate at least five decisions that Fletcher-Terry probably had to make during that troublesome time.Using your knowledge of the economic situation both in the United States and in the rest of the world in addition to information given in the case, present at least four states of nature during that time that had significant influence on the outcomes of the managers' decisions.
2. At one point, Fletcher-Terry decided to import its own private line of cutters. Suppose that before taking such action, the managers had the following information available. Construct a decision table and a decision tree by using this information. Explain any conclusions reached. Suppose the decision for managers was to import or not import. If they imported, they had to worry about the purchasing value of the dollar overseas. If the value of the dollar went up, the company could profit $350,000. If the dollar maintained its present position, the company would still profit by $275,000.However, if the value of the dollar decreased, the company would be worse off with an additional loss of $555,000. One business economic source reported that there was a 25% chance that the dollar would increase in value overseas, a 35% chance that it would remain constant, and a 40% chance that it would lose value overseas. If the company decided not to import its own private label, it would have a $22,700 loss no matter what the value of the dollar was overseas. Explain the possible outcomes of this analysis to the management team in terms of EMV, risk aversion, and risk taking. Bring common sense into the process and give your recommendations on what the company should do given the analysis. Keep in mind the company's situation and the fact that it had not yet tried any solution. Explain to company officials the expected value of perfect information for this decision.
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Related Book For
Business Statistics for Contemporary Decision Making
ISBN: 978-0470910184
6th Edition
Authors: Ken Black
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