The Hungry Person restaurant has posted its sales (in thousands of dollars) for the last two years.

Question 1
Develop a four month moving average. Compute MSE and forecast the amount of sales for the next month.
Question 2
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values. Compute MSE and forecast for the next month.
Question 3
Compare the result for the four-month average and exponential smoothing. Which appears to provide a better forecast based on MSE? Explain. (Make sure to adjust the MSE of the exponential smoothing).

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1st Year Month 2nd Year 200 January 215 February 222 215 March 231 240 April 200 244 May 220 231 212 June 219 July 210 219 August 213 212 September 200 216 October 216 219 November 222 210 December 235 215