The values of Alabama building contracts (in millions of dollars) for a 12-month period follow:
240 350 230 260 280 320 220 310 240 310 240 230
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast. Use α = 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts based on MSE?
c. What is the forecast for the next month?