The weekly box office revenues (in $ millions) for Terminator 3 are given here. Use these data in the Bass forecasting model given by equations through to estimate the parameters p, q, and m. Solve the model using Solver and see whether you can duplicate the results in Table 8.8.
Week Terminator 3
1 ........... 72.39
2 ........... 37.93
3 ........... 17.58
4 ........... 9.57
5 ........... 5.39
6 ........... 3.13
7 ........... 1.62
8 ........... 0.87
9 ........... 0.61
10 ......... 0.26
11 ......... 0.19
12 ......... 0.35
The Bass forecasting model is a good example of a €œhard€ nonlinear program and the answer you get may be a local optimum that is not nearly as good as the result given in Table.
OPTIMAL FORECAST PARAMETERS FOR THE DOCTOR
AND TERMINATOR 3

If you find your results do not match those in Table, use the Multistart option as described in Appendix 8.2. Use a lower bound of €“ 1 and an upper bound of 1 on both p and q. Use a lower bound of 100 and an upper bound of 1000 onm.

Parameter The Doctor 0.074 0.49 34.85 Terminator .49 -018 149.54