Question:
Veritas Emerging Market Fund specializes in investing in emerging stock markets of the world. Mr. Henry Mobaus, an experienced hand in international investment and your boss, is currently interested in Turkish stock markets. He thinks that Turkey will eventually be invited to negotiate its membership in the European Union. If this happens, it will boost stock prices in Turkey. But, at the same time, he is quite concerned with the volatile exchange rates of the Turkish currency. He would like to understand what drives Turkish exchange rates. Since the inflation rate is much higher in Turkey than in the United States, he thinks that purchasing power parity may be holding at least to some extent. As a research assistant for him, you are assigned to check this out. In other words, you have to study and prepare a report on the following question: Does purchasing power parity hold for the Turkish lira-U.S. dollar
exchange rate? Among other things, Mr. Mobaus would like you to do the following:
1. Plot past annual exchange rate changes against the differential inflation rates between Turkey and the United States for the last 20 years.
2. Regress the annual rate of exchange rate changes on the annual inflation rate differential to estimate the intercept and the slope coefficient, and interpret the regressionresults.
Exchange Rate
The value of one currency for the purpose of conversion to another. Exchange Rate means on any day, for purposes of determining the Dollar Equivalent of any currency other than Dollars, the rate at which such currency may be exchanged into Dollars...
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Elld-ot-year rate 0.0023 0.0029 0.0051 0.0086 0.0145 1989 1990 1991 65.9694 1992 199366.0971 1994 1995 1996 1997 199884.6413 199964.8675 2000 2001 54.400 2002 2003 2004 200510.1384 2006 2007 2008 104441 2009 5.3980 54.9147 4235061.7344 3.028867.0440 2.9517 63.1454 2.6074 103.6556 2.8054 85.3023 2.931277.4157 2.3377 83.3955 1.552383.0890 2.1880 62.6795 3.3769 51.5385 2.8262 51.5740 1.5860 43.3781 2.2701 23.0263 2.6772 7.9070 3.3928 6.7457 3.22597.2851 2.8527 5.9035 3.8396.6050 0.3555 6.6065 60.3127 26.6406 73.3720 68.5938 68.9838 0.0387 167.5833 0.0597 54.0309 80.6790 90.7724 52.9457 5414 72.1660 24.3785 1.4501115.3493 1.643713.3485 1.396615.0307 1.3395 4.0912 0.4143 4.7545 16.9056 30.2913 -2.2649 70.0728 106.2630 88.1077 80.3469 85.7332 0.1078 0.2056 0.3145 0. 0.6734 54.9154 44.9641 25.2964 10.5842 1.3451 1.4090 8.7562 1.1708 15255 30,2913 6.2510 1.4909