You are at the Screaming Slalom Ski Basin and estimate that you have about a 25% likelihood of successfully navigating a run down the diffcult Yikes! slope without a serious fall. Today you plan to make four trips down the slope. However, if you have a serious fall on any one of these downhill trips, that’s it—you’re done for the day.
a. How likely is it that you will NOT make it to the third run?
b. How likely is it that you will survive the full four-run day without a serious fall?
c. Suppose you make it through the frst three runs unscathed. How likely is it that you will all on the fnal run?
d. Suppose, because of fatigue, the chance of a seriousfall increases by 2 percentage points (.02) with each run. How likely is it that you will make it through the entire four-run day without a serious fall?