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business
regression analysis
Questions and Answers of
Regression Analysis
How do the coefficients of OLS models and those obtained from 2SLS models differ? What does this say about the bias that exists in the estimations?
In your own words thoroughly explain the identification problem and give an example.
As sales decline at Duddly Dufus Enterprises, inventories tend to reach an abnormally high level. The accompanying monthly data in hundreds of dollars record these trends. Develop and interpret the
Annual measures of output measured in thousands of tons produced for LLW Industries are shown in the accompanying table. If productivity exceeds 19 tons by 2016 the CEO of the firm will give all
Quarterly data for the number of employees and their weekly earnings are contained in the data set EARNINGS. Develop simple time series models for both employees and earnings. Discuss your findings
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a stock market index created by Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones & Company, co-founded by Charles Dow on May 26, 1896, and now owned by Dow Jones Indexes. The
Using the data from the first problem in Section 11.1 for Duddly Dufus Enterprises, estimate an autoregressive model. Experiment with different values for p-order models until you have what you think
Using the data from the second problem in Section 11.1 for LLW Industries, estimate an autoregressive model. Experiment with different values for p-order models until you have what you think is the
Using the data from the third problem in Section 11.1 for the data set EARNINGS, estimate an autoregressive model. Experiment with different values for p-order models until you have what you think is
Using the data from the fourth problem in Section 11.1 for DOWJONES INDUSTRIALS, estimate an autoregressive model.Experiment with different values for p-order models until you have what you think is
In what way does the Koyck transformation resolve problems often associated with distributed lag models?
Given Yt = β0Xt + λYt−1, what is the short-run effect of a one-unit change in X? What is the long-run impact (multiplier) for the model?
Presume Yt = 4 + 0.73Xt + 0.291Yt−1 in a model with two lagged values. Find the coefficients for the lagged X-values.
Access the file KOYCK. Test for autocorrelation based on a Koyck model.
Discuss the differences between the Koyck and Almon lag procedures.Which do you feel is more applicable to real-world data? Why? What are the advantages and disadvantages of each?
Access the file GRANGER. The data set contains more extensive data for GNP and the money supply. Perform Granger causality tests with m = 3. Test for causality at 10% in both directions.
Under what conditions can the Granger causality be applied? What is its purpose?
In what way is the Granger test a distributed lag model?
Define and give examples of:A. Secular trend.B. Seasonal component.C. Cyclical variation.D. Irregular fluctuations.
What is the purpose of moving average and exponential smoothing?
Describe, define, and give examples of the following—detail the advantages and disadvantages of each:A. Mean Absolute Percentage Error.B. Mean Absolute Deviation.C. Mean Square Deviation.
When does a moving average fail to best perform its purpose as well as it should?
Why and when might first-differencing be necessary? What function does it perform?
Define and describe the autoregressive model. Give an example.
How many observations will you lose in the example you gave above?
An autoregressive model has 55 observations and four lagged variables. How many degrees of freedom will it have?
Define a distributed lagged model. Why is it called a distributed lagged model? Give an example.
Discuss and describe a Koyck transformation. Why is it also called a geometric lagged model? Give an example.
A variable is said to be stationary over time if it exhibits what characteristic? What restrictions does this impose on the variable's long-run mean and variance?
Define cointegration.
Discuss and describe the Almon polynomial lag. Discuss in detail how it differs from the Koyck lag.
Under what conditions can Granger causality be applied? What is its purpose? Create a complete example of your own devising, choosing carefully what variables you include in your model. Explain just
Explain how moving averages work. If the data are not stationed, what adjustments should be made?
How does single exponential smoothing work? What are its advantages compared with the moving average?
When should a double exponential smoothing technique be used?
Describe a correlogram. What is its purpose?
Briefly describe the four steps to the Box-Jenkins methodology.
An autoregressive model is reported to be as seen below with t-values in parentheses. How many lagged terms should be included in the model's final form? Y=47.3+0.47Y-4.2Y+1.72Y3 (2.5) (-3.7) (1.02)
A model is formed as Yt = f(Xt, Xt−1, Xt−2, Xt−3, Xt−4) such that Yt =73.2 + 1.4Xt + 0.471 Yt−1. Create the Koyck transformation.
Riley Supplies, Ltd. ships computer software throughout the Midwest.The daily number of late shipments in the past two weeks are shown in the table to the right. Use a 3-period moving average to
Given the data in problem 3, is a moving average a suitable method of forecasting? Compute the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Mean Absolute Deviation, and the Mean Square Deviation.Problem 3
Use a smoothing factor of 0.7 on the data for problem 3 and provide the forecast.Problem 3 Riley Supplies, Ltd. ships computer software throughout the Midwest.The daily number of late shipments in
Identify a common business problem from the popular business press or from your own personal experience. How do you think statistical analysis might help you approach that problem in your search for
Given the problem you defined in the first question, how would you complete the five basic stages of a statistical process? How would you go about collecting the data? Would it be necessary to take a
How would you use the results of the first two questions above to make better business decisions?
Identify each of the numbers below as to the type of number it is, based on the Arabic system in use in the Western world. A. 12 B. C. D. E. 56i F. 4 G. -5 H. 0 -12 4/5 6/18
Distinguish between a population and a sample; between a parameter and a statistic.
What is the difference between an estimator and an estimate?
Define a continuous variable and a discrete variable. How do they differ? Cite several examples of each.
What is sampling bias? Give an example. What generally causes it?What problem is it likely to cause?
What is sampling error and how does it arise in a statistical study?What causes sampling error?
Define and give examples of the four levels of data measurement. Why can you not mathematically manipulate the first two types?
Distinguish between descriptive statistics and inferential statistics as to their general purpose. Explain how each type might be performed.Give your own original examples.
What is the difference between cross-sectional data and time series data? Give your own original examples.
What is meant by a sufficient estimator? Do you think the sample mean is a sufficient estimator of the population mean? Explain your answer.
Discuss why you think it's important for an estimator to be efficient.
What does it mean for an estimator to be consistent? Why do you think this is important and what does it have to do with the variation in the value of the estimate?
Explain in your own words why the modeling procedure discussed in the chapter can be called ordinary least squares. Use all pertinent graphical work in your response.
What is meant by the statement, “the sums of the errors is zero”? Use all pertinent graphical work in your response.
What is meant by “residual” in reference to the OLS model? Use all pertinent graphical work in your response.
What is the standard error of the estimate?A. What does it have to do with the concept of homoscedasticity?Explain what is meant by homoscedasticity. Use all pertinent graphical work in your
What is the coefficient of determination? What does it measure? How can it be used as a measure of goodness of fit? Use all pertinent graphical work in your response.
Discuss each of the properties and assumptions of the OLS model.What is the difference between a property and an assumption? Use all pertinent graphical work in your response.
Explain the Gauss-Markov Theorem. How does the acronym BLUE relate to it? Explain each of the terms.
A model is reported to be Y= 15.364 + 2.54X. Estimate Y if X= 37. Can you be assured that Y will be the amount you calculated? What connotation does E(Y|X= 37) have in this model?
Basic Keynesian theory postulated by the noted British economist John Maynard Keynes in his famous book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, published in 1936, holds that
Over a period of several years a local school district in Illinois followed their students through high school, college, and graduate school to determine the impact of education on lifetime earnings.
The raw data for the returns of U.S. treasury bonds and treasury bills were obtained from the Federal Reserve database in St. Louis (FRED).The treasury bill rate is a three-month rate and the
Economic data for best-and-worst state economies for several states are shown below. Due to the large numbers, which are difficult to compute by hand, enter the data into an Excel, Minitab, PASW, or
Data for the year 2010 for 10 countries are shown in the table below.Population is in millions of people; debt and GDP is measured in trillions of U.S. dollars.Population data from
Economic theory holds that the demand for different goods and services respond in dissimilar fashion to changes in consumers' incomes. Inferior goods are those that consumers purchase only because
Financial theory holds that there is a direct relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the rate of return it generates.Data for several heavily traded stocks on the organized
For over a decade, The Wall Street Journal and The Heritage Foundation, Washington's preeminent think tank, have tracked the march of economic freedom around the world with the influential Index of
Explain what is meant by degrees of freedom. Give your own example.
Why is the standard error of the conditional mean smaller than the standard error of the predictive interval? Explain conceptually as well as in terms of the equations.
What is the difference between the interval estimate for the conditional mean and the predictive interval? Under what conditions would you choose to estimate one as opposed to the other? Give
Why is the p-value the lowest level of significance you can set and still reject the null? Use a graph to fully explain.
Why does a low p-value indicate that your findings carry a higher level of significance?
What is the relationship between the alpha-value of a hypothesis test and the p-value?
If the regression coefficient is negative will the correlation coefficient always be negative? Explain your answer.
What does the standard error of the correlation coefficient measure?Why is it called a standard error?
What does it mean to say your findings are statistically significant?
Will the interval estimate for the conditional mean be wider or narrower than that for the predictive interval under the same conditions? Explain your answer.
If the interval estimate for the regression coefficient contains zero will the hypothesis test for its significance be rejected or not rejected? Why did you answer the way you did?
Given a level of significance at which a hypothesis is to be tested will the Do Not Reject region be wider or narrower using a Z-test or a ttest?Explain.
Given a level of confidence, will an interval estimate be wider or narrower if you use a Z-value or a t-value? Explain.
Why is the decision rule in a hypothesis test a “good rule to follow”?Answer in terms of probabilities.
Why is the alpha-value of a hypothesis test the probability of committing a Type I error? Use a graph to fully explain.
Under what conditions must you use Gosset's t-test?
Why can the Z-distribution be used in the event of “large” samples?
If a coefficient is not significant at the 5% level will it be significant at the 1% level? Prove your answer with the necessary graphical work.
In the effort to improve gas mileage in their vehicles a domestic carmaker collected data on the weight in pounds (000s) and miles driven per gallon of fuel.a. Compute the model. Which do you
The Environmental Protection Agency examined the impact of farming activities on water contamination in 43 localities throughout the Southeast. The tonnage of chemicals introduced by corporate farms
The National Association of Bankers completed a study of the impact of personal savings on mortgage rates in 14 states. Per capita savings in $1,000 was used as an independent variable. The results
Professor Phil Grant at Husson University in Bangor, Maine has spent much of his professional life studying the levels and determinants of employee motivation and satisfaction. In his compelling
As gas emissions from power plants around the world become an increasing threat to the environment, international agencies are examining the effect of carbon dioxide levels on smog concentration in
Founded in 1973, The Heritage Foundation is a research and educational institute with the mission to promote economic freedom and free enterprise. The Foundation provides a ranking of nations
The standard Keynesian consumption function presented by the British economist John Maynard Keynes in his 1936 opus, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, holds that a consumer's
In 1939 the British economist John Hicks published his noted work, Value and Capital, describing what today serves as a foundational principle in neoclassical economics dealing with the theory of
The neoclassical economic theory behind supply functions holds that the price of a commodity is a direct function of the quantity available for sale. A study by the Quantitative Decision Analysis
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