1. What did Mary's autocorrelation analysis show?
2. Fit an appropriate smoothing procedure to Mary's data, examine the residual autocorrelations, and generate forecasts for the remainder of FY2003-04. Do these forecasts seem reasonable?
3. Given the results in Question 2, do you think it is likely another forecasting method would generate "better" forecasts? Discuss.
4. Do you think additional medical staff might be needed to handle future demand? Write a brief report summarizing Mary's data analysis and the implications for additional staff.
Mary Beasley is responsible for keeping track of the number of billable visits to the Medical Oncology group at Southwest Medical Center. Her anecdotal evidence suggests that the number of visits has been increasing and some parts of the year seem to be busier than others. Some doctors are beginning to complain about the work load and suggest they don't always have enough time to interact with individual patients.
Total Billable Visits to Medical Oncology, FY1995 €“ FY2004

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Year Sept. ct N Dec J Feh Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. 725 789 893 823 917 81 ,048 970 1,082 1,028 1098 1,062 FY1994-95 FY1995-96 89 022 895 828 10 868 91 970 934 784 1028 956 FY1996-97 916 988 2 865 998 93 92 118 1,04 1057 12001,062 FY1997-98 1061 1049 829 1029 1120 1,084 1307 458 1,295 1412 553 1480 FY1998-99,554 1472 1326 123 5 1,092 1429 1399 1,341 409 1367 1483 FY1999-00 1492 1650 1454 1373 1466 1477 466,182 1,208 1132 1094 1,061 FY2000-01 018 233 1.112 1,107 1305 1,181 1391 1324 1259 1.36 1,227 1,294 FY2001-02 1083 1404 1329 10 1313 156 1,184 1404 1,310 12006 1.373 FY2002-03 1259 1295 1.100 0 1357 1256 1350 1318 1,27 1439 4 1,352 FY2003-04 1339 135 97 1333 1339 1307 Time Series Plot of Total Visits to Medical Oncology 1600 1400 1200 10 1000 600 111 22 33 4455 66 77 88 99 110 Month