Alleghany Mountain Power and Light is an electric utility company with a large fleet of vehicles including
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For autos and light trucks, strategy 1 (no preventive maintenance) costs nothing to implement and results in two possible outcomes: There is a 0.08 probability that a defective component will occur requiring emergency maintenance at a cost of $1,600, or there is 0.92 probability that no defects will occur and no maintenance will be necessary.
Strategy 2 (take oil samples) costs $40 to implement (i.e., take a sample), and there is a 0.08 probability that there will be a defective part and 0.92 probability that there will not be a defect. If there is actually a defective part, there is a 0.70 probability the sample will correctly identify it, resulting in preventive maintenance at a cost of $500. However, there is a 0.30 probability that the sample will not identify the defect and indicate everything is okay, resulting in emergency maintenance later at a cost of $1,600. On the other hand, if there are actually no defects, there is a 0.20 probability that the sample will erroneously indicate that there is a defect, resulting in unnecessary maintenance at a cost of $250. There is a 0.80 probability that the sample will correctly indicate there are no defects, resulting in no maintenance and no costs.
Strategy 3 (changing the oil regularly) costs $34.80 to implement and has two outcomes: a 0.04 probability of a defective component, which will require emergency maintenance at a cost of $1,600, and a 0.96 probability that no defects will occur, resulting in no maintenance and no cost.
Strategy 4 (changing the oil and sampling) costs $54.80 to implement and results in the same probabilities of defects and no defects as strategy 3. If there is a defective component, there is a 0.70 probability that the sample will detect it and $500 in preventive maintenance costs will be incurred. Alternatively, there is a 0.30 probability that the sample will not detect the defect, resulting in emergency maintenance at a cost of $1,600. If there is no defect, there is a 0.20 probability the sample will indicate there is a defect, resulting in an unnecessary maintenance cost of $250, and a 0.80 probability that the sample will correctly indicate no defects, resulting in no cost.
Develop a decision strategy for Alleghany Mountain Power and Light and indicate the expected value of this strategy.1
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Related Book For
Operations Management Creating Value Along the Supply Chain
ISBN: 978-0470525906
7th Edition
Authors: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor
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