Apex Mutual Fund invests primarily in technology stocks. The price of the fund at the end of each month for the 12 months of 2006 is shown in Table P-6.
Table P-6
MonthMutual Fund Price
January ……………………………19.39
February …………………………..18.96
March …………………………….18.20
April ………………………………17.89
May ……………………………….18.43
June ………………………………19.98
July ……………………………….19.51
August ……………………………20.63
September …………………………19.78
October ……………………………21.25
November …………………………21.18
December …………………………22.14
a. Find the forecast value of the mutual fund for each month by using a naive model. The value for December 2005 was 19.00.
b. Evaluate this forecasting method using the MAD.
c. Evaluate this forecasting method using the MSE.
d. Evaluate this forecasting method using the MAPE.
e. Evaluate this forecasting method using the MPE.
f. Using a naive model, forecast the mutual fund price for January 2007.