Question 1 (50 points). Apex Mutual Fund invests primarily in technology stocks. The revenue of the fund at the end of each quarter for the past three years is shown in the table below. Year Quarter Revenue 2019 Q1 15.58 Q2 16.88 Q3 16.99 Q4 17.37 2020 Q1 16.18 Q2 17.67 Q3 18.35 Q4 18.54 2021 Q1 17.02 Q2 18.99 Q3 19.78 Q4 19.43 (a) Use the Naive 5 model (t+1 = Y-3 + 91-44-4) to forecast the revenue for the four quarters of 2021. Compute the MSD of the forecast. (b) Use the MA(4) model to forecast the revenue for the four quarters of 2021. Compute the MSD of the forecast. 1 (c) Use (Holt's) double exponential smoothing method to forecast the revenue for the four quarters of 2021. In your calculations set a = 0.4 and B = 0.5. For the initial values set L2020Q3 = Y202003 and T202023 = 1. Compute the MSD of the forecast. (d) Based on your analyses in parts (a)-(c), suggest the best forecasting method to use for Apex Mutual Fund. Explain. Question 1 (50 points). Apex Mutual Fund invests primarily in technology stocks. The revenue of the fund at the end of each quarter for the past three years is shown in the table below. Year Quarter Revenue 2019 Q1 15.58 Q2 16.88 Q3 16.99 Q4 17.37 2020 Q1 16.18 Q2 17.67 Q3 18.35 Q4 18.54 2021 Q1 17.02 Q2 18.99 Q3 19.78 Q4 19.43 (a) Use the Naive 5 model (t+1 = Y-3 + 91-44-4) to forecast the revenue for the four quarters of 2021. Compute the MSD of the forecast. (b) Use the MA(4) model to forecast the revenue for the four quarters of 2021. Compute the MSD of the forecast. 1 (c) Use (Holt's) double exponential smoothing method to forecast the revenue for the four quarters of 2021. In your calculations set a = 0.4 and B = 0.5. For the initial values set L2020Q3 = Y202003 and T202023 = 1. Compute the MSD of the forecast. (d) Based on your analyses in parts (a)-(c), suggest the best forecasting method to use for Apex Mutual Fund. Explain