Assume that EBV and Talltree invested in Newco at the terms in Exercises 10.2 and 10.3, and it is now one year later. Owl is considering a $20M Series C investment in Newco. Talltree proposes to structure the investment as 12M shares of convertible preferred stock. The employees of Newco have claims on 10M shares of common stock, and the previous venture investors hold 6M shares of Series A convertible preferred (EBV) and 8M shares of Series B Convertible Preferred (Talltree). Thus, following the Series C investment, Newco will have 10M common shares outstanding and would have 36M shares outstanding on conversion of the CP. Owl estimates a 50 percent probability for a successful exit, with an expected exit time in three years, and an exit valuation of $500M. The $500M Owl fund has fees as given in Appendix 2.C in Chapter 2.

(a) What is your investment recommendation for Owl? (Show all steps.)

(b) How sensitive is this recommendation to different assumptions about the exit valuation and the probability of success?

(c) Given the evidence described in Chapter 7, do you think that 50 percent is an aggressive assumption about the probability of success for a third-round investment?