Consider the following time series data:

a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.
c. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.
d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
e. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2.

Transcribed Image Text:

Month 2 34 56 7 Valu 24 13 20 12 9 23 15