Consider the following time series data.

a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

b. Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.

c. Use α = .2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.

d. Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using α = .2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? explain.

e. Use a smoothing constant of α = .4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. does a smoothing constant of .2 or .4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? explain.

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Week 1 23 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 17 14