Reconsider the research-and-development decision in Figure 3.32. If you decide to continue the project, you will have

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Reconsider the research-and-development decision in Figure 3.32. If you decide to continue the project, you will have to come up with the $2 million this year (Year 1). Then there will be a year of waiting (Year 2) before you know if the patent is granted. If you decide to license the technology, you would receive the $25 million distributed as $5 million per year beginning in Year 3. On the other hand, if you decide to sell the product directly, you will have to invest $5million in each of Years 3 and 4 (to make up the total investment of $10 million). Your net proceeds from selling the product, then, would be evenly distributed over Years 5 through 9.

Assuming an interest rate of 15%, calculate the NPV at the end of each branch of the decision tree.

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Making Hard Decisions with decision tools

ISBN: 978-0538797573

3rd edition

Authors: Robert Clemen, Terence Reilly

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