In Chapter 8, Figure 8.6 shows a simplified project network for building a house, as follows:

Lay foundation Design house and obtain financing Order and receive materials Select paint Select carpet There are four paths through this network:
Path A: 1–2–3–4–6–7 Path B: 1–2–3–4–5–6–7 Path C: 1–2–4–6–7 Path D: 1–2–4–5–6–7 The time parameters (in weeks) defining a triangular probability distribution for each activity are provided as follows:
Time Parameters Activity Minimum Likeliest Maximum 1–2 1 3 5 2–3 1 2 4 2–4 0.5 1 2 3–4 0 0 0 4–5 1 2 3 4–6 1 3 6 5–6 1 2 4 6–7 1 2 4

a. Using Crystal Ball, simulate each path in the network and identify the longest path (i.e., the critical path).

b. Observing the simulation run frequency chart for path A, determine the probability that this path will exceed the critical path time. What does this tell you about the simulation results for a project network versus an analytical result? LO.1