Question: In forecasting a quarterly time series over the five-year period from the first quarter of 2013 through the fourth quarter of 2017, the exponential trend

In forecasting a quarterly time series over the five-year period from the first quarter of 2013 through the fourth quarter of 2017, the exponential trend forecasting equation is given by

log î = 3.0 + 0.10X, – 0.25Q + 0.20Q2 + 0.15Q3


where quarter zero is the first quarter of 2013. Take the antilog of the appropriate coefficient from this equation and interpret the

a. Y intercept, b̂0.

b. Quarterly compound growth rate. 

c. Second-quarter multiplier.

log = 3.0 + 0.10X, 0.25Q + 0.20Q2 + 0.15Q3

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