Match each of the vignettes below with one of the following phenomena: m•ai/11/lility l1i11s, l,ase-rat1111eglect, co11ftr11111tio11 bias, co11i1111ctio11 fallacy, 1iisj1111ctio11 fallacy, ltindsigllt bias, and vverco11ftde11ce. If in doubt, pick the best fit.

(a) Al has always been convinced that people of Roma (gypsy) descent are prone to thievery. In fact, several of his co-workers have a Roma background. But he knows his co-workers arc not thieves, and he does not think twice about it. One day during happy hour, however, an old acquaintance shares a story about two people "who looked like gypsies" stealing goods from a grocery store. "I knew it!" Al says to himself.

(b) Beth's car is foiling apart. Her friends, who know these things, tell h('r that the car has a 10 percent probability of breaking Jown every mile. Beth really wants to go see a friend who liVL'S about ten miles away, though. She ponder, the

'>ignificance of driving a car that has J 10 percent probability of breaking down each mile, but figures that the probability of the car breaking down during the trip cannot be much higher than, say, 15 percent. She is shocked when her car breaks down half way there.

(c) CL>cile is so terrified of violent crime that she rarely le,w es her house, even though .,he li n >s in a :.,1fe neighborhood. She is \)Ut of shape, ,;uffors from hvpcrten:,ion, ,md would be much happier if shl• went for a walk ewry so often.

However, a:. soon as she considers going for a walk, images of what might h,1ppcn to innocent people quietly s trolling d own the sidewillk come to mind,

.,nd she is sure something horrible is going to happen to her too. As a result, she goes back to watching reruns of L11w and Order.

(d) D,wid, who has never left the country, somehow manages to get tested for malaria. The test comes back positive. David has never been so depressed.

Convinced that he is mortally sick, he starts to draft his will.

(e) Because she has trouble getting up in the morning, Elizabeth often drives too fast on her way to school. After getting a speeding ticket on Monday last week, she religiously followed the law all Wl't.'k. Only this week is she starting to drive fos ter again.

(f) Fizzy does not think the US will w,mt to s tart another front in the war on terror, so she believes that is quite unlikely that the US will bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. She d oes, however, think that it is quite likely that the US wiU withdraw all troops from Afghanistan. When asked what she thinks about the possibili ty that the US will bomb Iranian nuclear fa cilities and withdraw a ll troops from Afghanistan, she thinks that it is more likely than the possibility that the US will bomb Iranian nuclear facilities.

(g) Georgina has trouble imagining an exis tence without Apple computers and iPads. Thus, she thinks it was inevitable that a man like Steve Jobs would appear and design such things.

(h) Harry lost all his luggage the last time he checked it. He is never going to check his luggage ag,1irl, even if it means having unpleasant arguments with flight attendants.