Questions and Answers of Forecasting Predictive Analytics

For what type of data pattern would a simple exponential smoothing model be good as a forecast method?
Why is the term exponential used when describing exponential smoothing forecast models? negative slope
How are simple moving averages models different from exponential smoothing models?
Describe what is meant by the term moving average? When would a moving average be an appropriate forecast method?
Monthly data from March 2014 through September 2017 are provided below for the number of lunches served in public schools. You are charged with making a 12-month forecast of the meals to be served.
The data in the table below are for retail sales in book stores by quarter.U.S. Retail Book Sales (in Millions of Dollars,
The data in the table below represent warehouse club and superstore sales in the eastern and central United States on a monthly basis. The data are in millions of dollars.
Plot the data presented in Exercise 7 to examine the possible existence of trend and seasonality in the data.Prepare three separate exponential smoothing models to forecast the full-service
The number of service calls received at LaFortune Electric during four months is shown in the following table: Month…………..Number of Service
The number of tons of brake assemblies received at an auto parts distribution center last month was 670. The forecast tonnage was 720 for last month. The company uses a simple exponential smoothing
Forecasters at Siegfried Corporation are using simple exponential smoothing to forecast the sales of its major product. They are trying to decide what smoothing constant will give the best results.
Consider the following data on full-service restaurant sales. Calculate both the three-month and five-month moving averages for these data, and compare the forecasts by calculating the mean absolute
Consider the following rates offered on certificates of deposit at a large metropolitan bank during a recent year:Use a three-month average to forecast the rate for the following
Home sales are often considered an important determinant of the future health of the economy. Thus, there is widespread interest in being able to forecast home sales (HS). Quarterly data for HS are
Use exploratory data analysis to determine whether there is a trend and/or seasonality in mobile home shipments (MHS). The data by quarter are shown in the following
In a sample of 25 classes, the following numbers of students were observed.ClassNumber of studentsClassNumber of
Twenty graduate students in business were asked how many credit hours they were taking in the current quarter. Their responses are shown as follows.Student NumberCredit HoursStudent NumberCredit
As the world’s economy becomes increasingly interdependent, various exchange rates between currencies have become important in making business decisions. For many U.S. businesses, the Japanese
CoastCo Insurance, Inc., is interested in developing a forecast of larceny thefts in the United States. It has found the following data:YearLarceny Thefts*YearLarceny
Suppose that you work for a major U.S. retail department store that has outlets nationwide. The store offers credit to customers in various forms, including store credit cards, and over the years has
Go to the library and look up annual data for population in the United States from 2000 through the most recent year available. This series is available at a number of Internet sites, including
Suppose that you work for a U.S. senator who is contemplating writing a bill that would put a national sales tax in place. Because the tax would be levied on the sales revenue of retail stores, the
In the chapter, you learned about many metrics that can be used to evaluate forecast accuracy. The MAPE was one of those that may be the most common in use. Explain what the MAPE tells a forecaster.
In this chapter, you saw an example of a naive forecast. Why do you think it is given that name? Describe how the naive forecast is developed.
The process of forecasting new products is difficult. Why? How can new products be forecast?
Explain how forecasting relates to having an efficient supply chain.
How does the organization of the material in this book relate to the stages of the evolution of prediction?
Describe the three phases of the evolution of forecasting/prediction.

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