4.97 A new brand of pizza is going to be sold in Park &

Shop, and a market-research company in Admiralty

(Hong Kong) has forecast that successful new brands normally obtain a 10% market share for the product in the first year. However, top management wants to achieve 12%. You may assume a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 3% (risk on the estimates).

Determine each of the following.

a. The probability that the new pizza will actually achieve the target.

b. The probability of failure.

c. The probability of being even more successful, with 18% of market share in the first year.