Insurance claims. An insurance company has maintained data on the number of automobile claims filed at its Amsterdam office over the past 5 years. They would like to predict the number of claims that they will receive next year. They are planning to use two different models:

a moving average (MA) model and an exponential smoothing model.

Year Claims 2014 576 2015 660 2016 816 2017 768 2018 840

a) Use a 3-year moving average to predict what the number of claims would be in 2019.

b) Predict the value for 2019 using a single exponential smooth with smoothing parameter a = 0.2.