Using the employment data in the data file OECD Employment Gap Data, based on the OECD employment gap studies, develop a first-order autoregressive model, including one lagged values as predictor variable, for Korean women’s employment (the second-order factor is insignificant). First, use the data for the period 1990 through 2009, to forecast for the years 2010 to 2013. Then use the data from 1990 through 2014, to forecast for the years 2015 to 2018.

Discuss the differences in the accuracy of the forecasts compared to the actual results, and indicate the reasons for these differences.