=+38. Day trading. An option to buy a stock is priced at $200.

If the stock closes above 30 on May 15, the option will be worth $1000. If it closes below 20, the option will be worth nothing, and if it closes between 20 and 30 (inclusively), the option will be worth $200. A trader thinks there is a 50% chance that the stock will close in the 20–30 range, a 20% chance that it will close above 30, and a 30% chance that it will fall below 20 on May 15.