Answer the following questions using the data from the Excel file Great Smoky Mountain.xlsx from Problem 16.47.

a. Using a four-period simple moving average, forecast the number of visitors each year visiting the Great Smoky Mountain National Park in 2013.

b. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part a.

c. Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.7, forecast the number of visitors each year visiting the Great Smoky Mountain National Park in 2013.

d. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part c.

e. Which forecast do you have most confidence in?

AppendixLO1