Marital status. The probability that a randomly chosen 50-yearold woman is divorced is about 0.18. This probability is a long-run proportion based on all the millions of women aged 50. Let’s suppose that the proportion stays at 0.18 for the next 30 years. Bridget is now 20 years old and is not married.

(a) Bridget thinks her own chances of being divorced at age 50 are about 5%.

Explain why this is a personal probability.

(b) Give some good reasons why Bridget’s personal probability might differ from the proportion of all women aged 50 who are divorced.

(c) You are a government official charged with looking into the impact of the Social Security system on middle-aged divorced women. You care only about the probability 0.18, not about anyone’s personal probability. Why?