Simulating an opinion poll. A Gallup Poll on Presidents Day 2008 interviewed a random sample of 1007 adult Americans. Those in the sample were asked which former president they would like to bring back as the next president if they could. The poll showed that about 10% of adult Americans would bring back Abraham Lincoln. Suppose that this is exactly true. Choosing an adult American at random then has probability 0.1 of getting one who would bring back Abraham Lincoln. If we interview adult Americans separately, we can assume that their responses are independent.

We want to know the probability that a simple random sample of 100 adult Americans will contain at least 15 who say that they would bring back Abraham Lincoln. Explain carefully how to do this simulation and simulate one repetition of the poll using line 112 of Table A. How many of the 100 adult Americans said they would bring back Abraham Lincoln? Explain how you would estimate the probability by simulating many repetitions.

Chapter 19 Exercises 423