Space shuttle disaster. On January 28, 1986, the space shuttle Challenger exploded, killing all seven astronauts aboard. An investigation concluded that the explosion was caused by the failure of the O ring seal in the joint between the two lower segments of the right solid rocket booster. In a report made one year prior to the catastrophe, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) claimed that the probability of such a failure was about 1•60,000, or about once in every 60,000 flights. But a risk-assessment study conducted for the Air Force at about the same time assessed the probability to be 1•35, or about once in every 35 missions.

(Note: The shuttle had flown 24 successful missions prior to the disaster.) Given the events of January 28, 1986, which risk assessment—NASA’s or the Air Force’s—

appears to be more appropriate?